Makihara (002714): Effective performance of cost control exceeded expectations

Makihara (002714): Effective performance of cost control exceeded expectations

Event Company announces 2019 annual results.

  In 2019, the company realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 600,000 to 640,000 yuan, which increased by 1053.

38% -1130.

28%.

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the company realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

13-50.

13 ppm, an increase of 2613 in ten years.

53% -2848.

82%.

  The company’s performance exceeded expectations.

  In our analysis and judgment, the average selling price has risen, and in terms of the company’s high performance, the company has sold a total of 1,025 live pigs in 2019.

330,000 heads, a decrease of 6 a year.

88%, of which 867 were commercial pigs.

910,000 heads, 154 piglets.

710,000 heads, breeding pigs 2.

710,000 heads.

  In terms of prices, due to the tight supply of pigs under the influence of the African swine fever epidemic, the company’s average sales price of hogs has been increasing, and the monthly average price has been from January 9.

60 yuan / kg rose to 30 in December.

52 yuan / kg, driving the company’s performance to increase by 1053 in ten years.

38% -1130.

28% to 6-6.4 billion yuan.

We estimate that the average sales price of the company in 2019 is about 19 yuan / kg, the average profit is about 590 yuan, and the cost is about 13.

About 2 yuan / kg.

  The supply recovery is slow, and the average hog price in 2020 will run at a high level in 2019Q2-Q3. The domestic fertile sow inventory will decrease from the previous month, and the production capacity of the industry will start to bottom out in Q4 2019. At the same time, the internal-scale breeding farms will start planting strategies in July this year.It is about 10 months after the pigs go out to the market, so Q1-Q2 is still expected to be in short supply in 2020, and Q3 may begin to ease.

  On the whole, because the progress of the current round of replenishment is more continuous than before, it is expected that the subsequent replenishment will be a long-term process, and the overall allowable gap in 2020.

We estimate that the average hog sales price in 2019 will be around 18-20 yuan / kg, and the average hog price in 2020 is expected to be around 28-30 yuan / kg. The corporate performance in 2020 is still in the cashing period.

  The production capacity is sufficient, and the company expects that the harvest volume and price will go up. According to the company’s announcement, as of the end of September 2019, the company’s productive biological assets were 28.

3.6 billion yuan, compared with 17 at the end of June.

6.8 billion up 60.

41%.

  As of the end of December 2019, the company’s breeding sow inventory was 128.

There are 320,000 heads of reserve sows in stock.

According to the evaluation target of the company’s benefit stock incentive plan, the growth rate of hog sales in 2020 is no less than 70%, and the number of hogs in 2021 will grow no less than 150% in 2019, corresponding to the number of hogs in 2020-2021.1743.

06, 2563.

330,000 heads.

The company’s performance will continue to be realized under the rise in both volume and price.

  It plans to build a new 2 million pig slaughtering project and cultivate additional performance. On November 9, 2019, the company announced that it plans 北京夜生活网 to cooperate with the People’s Government of Shangshui County to build a 2 million pig slaughtering project in Shangshui County, with a total investment of 5 billion.yuan.
We believe that the company’s forthcoming expansion from breeding to downstream and downstream will help the company implement strategic development plans, further enhance the company’s comprehensive competitiveness, and at the same time create new points of performance growth.  Investment suggestion: We expect the operating income of Makihara shares to be 196 from 2019 to 2020.

63 ppm, 543.

420,000 yuan, an increase of 46 in ten years.

87% and 176.

37%; net profit attributable to mothers is 60.

33 ppm, 278.

820,000 yuan, an increase of 1060 in ten years.

19%, 362.

16%; EPS are 2 respectively.

74 yuan / share, 12.

64 yuan / share, PE is 33.

2x and 7.

2x, maintain the company’s “Buy” rating.

  Risk factors: The price of hogs has fallen sharply; the swine fever epidemic has affected the number of listed companies.