6 big black swans in 2020: spend a wonderful 2019 Beware these devil behind
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Six big black swans in 2020: spend a wonderful 2019, be careful, these devil are behind the author | Hanyang Tree Data Support | Pythagoras Big Data 2019 is definitely a wonderful year for investors, almost all assetsPrices have risen, whether it’s risky assets or safe-haven assets.
The stock market has risen. Until today, China has generally risen by 30 to 40 points, and Europe and the United States have risen by 20 or 30 points.
Bonds have risen, China’s national debt has risen, US debt has also risen, and negative interest rate bonds have also expanded.
Gold rose, so did oil.
The bad news is that wonderful 2019 is about to pass, and the devil in the capital market has always been there.
I have been in the market for a long time, that is, I know that the good things in the world are not firm.
What black swans might be waiting for us in 2020?
1 Black Swan No. 1: The Fed ‘s rate hike exceeds expectations: ★★ Impact: ★★★★★ The above mentioned the wonderful 2019, which may be considered by many people as the easing of the Sino-US conflict.Is a big misunderstanding.
The Sino-U.S. Conflict in 2019 is not easing, but escalating.
It can be seen that with reference to 2018, the scope of tariffs between China and the United States has been further expanded, not narrowed, but there has been a slight easing during the year.
What’s more, if the Sino-US easing is the main theme, how can we explain the rise in the price of safe-haven assets?
There is only one main theme in 2019, which is the liquidity brought by the Fed’s interest rate cuts.
It is liquidity, and not others, that is driving the estimated repair of almost all assets.
The Fed’s rate cut in 2019 is something the market hasn’t predicted.
The FOMC meeting at the end of 2018 showed that there will be two interest rate 杭州夜网论坛 hikes in 2019. The market is still struggling with the Fed raising or not raising interest rates in early 2019, and the situation has turned sharply into a Fed rate cut in 2019. In the end, the Fed lowered it three times.
Not only that, starting from September, the Fed has re-expanded its table, which has given the world tighter liquidity in recent years to take a breather.
At present, the Fed expects that it will not raise interest rates in 2020, and the market expects a higher point. The general expectation is that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2020.
But what if the opposite is true?
Just as the market did not expect the Fed to raise interest rates four times in 2018, the market did not expect the Fed to cut interest rates in 2019. What is wrong with the market this time?
The conditions that trigger the Fed’s interest rate rise are likely to occur, 杭州桑拿网 one is that the United States is on the rise, and the other is that the trade conflict between the United States and other countries has eased and the economy has accelerated.
If the Fed restarts and restarts interest rates, Harmony Music will probably end in 2019. At least, negative interest rate bonds will be slaughtered, and gold is hard to count on. As for the stock market, don’t expect to make estimated money, or make a spit.some.
2 Black Swan II: Probability of re-escalation of Sino-US conflict: ★★ Impact: ★★★★★ The current market view is that the first phase of the China-US trade agreement reached at the end of 2019 is the conflict since 2018.Inflection point, the tariffs imposed on each other will be gradually phased out.
Such prospects are certainly bright.
However, the renewed competition between China and the United States is no longer comprehensive in the economic field, from economics to finance, military, technology, and politics.
The anxiety of the incumbent was inexplicable.
Therefore, this conflict may be partially eased in the short term, but it must be long-term.
Just as it has eased by the end of 2018, but suddenly turned sharply again in May 2019, it is quite possible to have pupae again in 2020.
In addition, even the first-phase trade agreement was not signed.
If the Sino-US conflict escalates, the replacement will affect the asset price in two ways.
The first is the emotional aspect, which definitely avoids dangerous emotions from rising.
The second is the fundamentals. From this year’s economic performance can be shattered. Trade conflicts have a superimposed effect on both China and the United States.
It is not the beginning of 2019, even if the Sino-US trade escalated, but this noise barrier can not repair the main theme of the liquidity-driven estimates.
So far, the number of A shares is not cheap. If the logic of the fundamentals is killed again at this time, the impact on it may not be small.
Hong Kong stocks may be better. In addition to the consumer sector, it is estimated that the impact of the Hong Kong incident is not high, but the continued emotional killing of the Sino-US conflict suppresses alternative repairs in this market.
3 Black Swan No. 3: Probability of degenerate defeat: ★ ★ Impact:?
2020 is the US election year, and it is generally acknowledged that it is not the US president. It is indeed the highlight of 2020.
From the survey opinion, the expected approval rate is currently very high.In addition, we have not seen a challenger of strength. If there is a challenger of strength, Bloomberg will not be 77 years old, and will also participate in the tore of the US presidential election.
Bloomberg, Source: Chinese International Video However, before the results of next year’s election, none of them will be 100%.
Basically, there are two problems now. One is that the Sino-U.S. Trade conflict has hurt his peasant’s basic market. To reach the first-phase trade agreement with China, the political motive should do something to repair the peasant’s basic market.
The second trouble is “Tong Umen”. Now that the House of Representatives has passed the impeachment of the opposition, although the Senate is a Republican plate, it is almost impossible to pass, so it is unknown that the election will have some effect.
What if we can lose the election?
We know that he has previously boasted that the growth of US stocks is his credit, and even said that if he is impeached, US stocks will collapse.
To be honest, I think it is foolish for a politician to bind himself to the stock market.
The capricious market can hold you as high as you can, and it can also knock you down multiple times. In this regard, we A-share investors have seen more.
However, objectively speaking, it must be true that it is not a slap in the water.
It can be said that before 2019, the growth of U.S. stocks since the election in turn has really been the reverse credit, because his macro tax reduction policy has promoted the increase in corporate profits and promoted corporate repurchases.
If it was not universally accepted in 2016, we would be in a completely different parallel world.
In that world, U.S. stocks may not be so beautiful, and A-shares may not be so sad.
It is still relatively difficult to assess the impact of a defeat on US stocks and the global impact. It is definitely a very large macro event.
4 Black Swan No. 4: Geopolitical crisis probability: ★ ★ Impact: ★ ★ ★ Geopolitics can fly out of Black Swans almost every year.
Two of the larger ones in 2019, one was the explosion of Saudi sulfuric acid, which caused crude oil prices to rise by 20% at one time.
However, the impact time of this is relatively short.
The other is the Hong Kong incident. The HSI is at the bottom of the main market this year. This black swan has contributed.
In the past, when we discussed geopolitical black swans, we generally discussed two places, one is the Middle East and the other is North Korea, but I am afraid that Hong Kong will be added from now on.
From past history, North Korea ‘s sense of global presence is too low to basically cause any storms. The A-share military industry sector will follow. Hong Kong may be a little sensitive, but basically, how did the military industry get fired?If you fry it, how the market will bring it down will also bring it up.
North Korea tossed a few times, just brushed on the sense of presence, do not take it seriously.
The Middle East has always been a gunpowder barrel, but it is oil that maintains a relationship with the global economy, and the Middle East’s right to speak on oil is also declining.
Therefore, the black swan appears in this place, at most it is emotional killing, no matter how it goes, it will come up.
Whether the incident in Hong Kong is completely over is indeed an issue for investors in Hong Kong stocks to pay attention to.
From the perspective of Hong Kong stocks, especially prisons, the market is considered to be over.
However, we also know that although the city of Hong Kong is small, it is full of its own forces and cannot be ruled out again.
5 Black Swan No. 5: Probability of China’s Inflation Recurrence: ★ Impact: ★★★★★ In 2019, there was no conflict in China.
From the data point of view, the CPI has risen step by step and has jumped to more than 4%, which can be gradual.
However, we dismantled the structure of the CPI and faced the embarrassment of deflation after removing the pork.
The price of pigs has gone up.
Judging from the decision of the mother, the answer is no.
The rise in prices depends on two factors, one is the overall currency level, and the other is the relationship between supply and demand.
The more core logic of the rise in pig prices is the relationship between supply and demand. Swine fever has reduced the number of pigs slaughtered, and boots have pushed up pig prices, not the overall currency level.
This is consistent with the increase in Apple’s prices last year. By the second half of this year, Apple prices have dropped significantly.
The deflation after removing pork also shows that the current currency level has not caused deterioration. Therefore, we see that the central mother is continuing to release water, and the tone of monetary policy has also been changed from “moderate tightness” to “flexible moderateness”.
At the current pace, the drop should be in sight.
However, if it is possible to get up under such intense irrigation, is it no longer a false penetration under the cover of pork?
This happens, and Yang Ma’s monetary policy may be forced to change. This will be the exact opposite of the main theme of 2019, and it will have a considerable impact on the capital market. The most recent reference is the wave of 2010-2012.
6 Black Swan No. 6: China’s property market crash probability: ★ Impact: ★★★★★ China’s property market crash is an old topic.
Whether China’s housing prices have risen or fallen in 2019 is also in the mist.
There are also many anecdotes in the property market in 2019. In some recent Shenzhen, the owners of the XXX community joined hands to raise prices, and then were pinned to the ground by the government. As a result, the government issued a rule: the price of second-hand housing increased by more than 5%.Citizens can complain. It is said that the public account platform of Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau has been filled with complaints recently.
The core reason why China’s house prices are unpredictable is that you never know where the tangible hand is waving.
However, you can see what the appeal of that hand is.
The accuracy of this round has never been seen before: the house is for living, not for speculation.
Recently, the visible hand has reexamined this point.
Indeed, the tangible hand now has other demands and steady growth, but the tangible hand also knows that the excessively fast-growing house prices have expanded consumption. The property market may be able to grow steadily for a while, but the marginal benefit is greatly reduced and the marginal cost is increasing rapidly.
Therefore, the hope of the tangible hands is that house prices will not fall sharply, nor will they rise sharply.
But the question is, if the property market loses the capital gains expected from growth, will it be stable at current prices?
The first-tier cities may be stabilized by the support of the head crowd, but what about the third and fourth tiers?
What if the decline spreads?
Although we have been deleveraging for the past few years, our leverage is still very high.
High leverage means stepping on the wire, and of course you can step on it, but it is very thrilling.
In an economic downturn, it is easy for one lever to fail, and put pressure on the other lever, thus causing a series of thunderstorms.
The high leverage in China is none other than real estate.
7 Conclusion Having spent a wonderful 2019, we certainly hope that 2020 will continue to be wonderful, and we do not want black swans to happen.
However, the reality is that it always appeared in front of us in a way that we did not expect, killing us off guard.
Predicting the black swan does not necessarily require us to do anything now, but only through deduction, to figure out possible countermeasures.
In front of the tiger, you ran a little bit faster than your peers, and you will be greeted with a huge profit.