SF Holdings (002352): Fourth-quarter results or affected by accelerated capital expenditure epidemic highlights the company’s mid- and long-term investment value

SF Holdings (002352): Fourth-quarter results or affected by accelerated capital expenditure epidemic 南宁桑拿 highlights the company’s mid- and long-term investment value
Event: SF Holdings released the 2019 performance report: the company achieved revenue of 1121 in 2019.9.3 billion, +23 a year.4%, net profit to mother 57.970,000 yuan, +27 for ten years.2%, net profit after deduction is 42.1 ‰, +20 per year.8%; 287 trillion in revenue in the fourth quarter, +30 in ten years.7%, net profit attributable to mother 14.9 ‰, at least -2.7%, net of non-attributed net profit 6.97 ppm, +5 for ten years.1%. The growth rate of business volume picked up quarter by quarter. Q4 deductions for non-performance may be affected by accelerated capital expansion.The Q1-Q4 company’s single-quarter express delivery business volume growth rate was 7% / 11% / 31% / 52% in 2019. Benefiting from the continued heavy volume of e-commerce business and macro stabilization, the company’s overall business volume growth rate has gradually picked up. The Q4 company’s single ticket revenue exceeded -17%, or it was related to the further increase in the proportion of e-commerce parts, and the company’s overall operating income increased by 30.7%, basically in line with expectations.Q4 Company realized deduction of non-attribution net profit6.97 ppm, +5 for ten years.1%, or related to the company ‘s rapid capital expenditures leading to faster cost growth: the company ‘s e-commerce business volume was faster, especially during the peak of double 11 and double 12 e-commerce business, the company ‘s Q4 capital expenditure or investment acceleratedIncreasing consumption of resources such as vehicles will increase related operating costs, which will lower the gross profit margin. The express logistics relationship is “national economy and people’s livelihood”, and the value of the company’s integrated logistics leader is prominent.In January 2020, the company maintained rapid growth: achieved business volume5.6.6 billion votes, an increase of 40 per year.45% of revenue from supply chain business 4.8 billion, an annual increase of 455.8%.Since the outbreak of the New Crown epidemic, direct express logistics companies represented by SF and Post have played an increasingly prominent role in service rescue, production, and life. At the same time, national policies have proposed free support for high-speed tolls and alternative benefits.Policies help companies reduce costs.The company’s unified and diversified layout accelerates the transformation from a single express delivery business to an integrated logistics supplier, and actively expands new business such as supply chain, express, cold transportation, international and same city. The revenue of various new businesses in 2019H1 exceeds 23.66%.As the new business gradually matures, the value of the company’s integrated logistics leader will be reflected, especially in the future to transform Ezhou Airport’s transportation operations. The company will accelerate the promotion in the international and supply chain markets. Investment suggestion: We believe that the country is gradually recovering, and the company’s aging parts are expected to further recover; the e-commerce market maintains a high prosperity, and the company’s new e-commerce products help maintain high growth. The company’s short-term expansion of capital investment will lay an alternative foundation for long-term development.With the steady progress of new business, the company’s comprehensive logistics capabilities are gradually formed, which helps the company to quickly enter the B-end logistics market and create a long-term moat.The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.31, 1.49, 1.67 yuan, corresponding to PE 35x / 31x / 28x, maintaining the “Buy-A” level. Risk warning: the macro economy accelerates expansion, new business expansion is less than expected, and capital expenditure is high.